Indicator Descriptions
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Contents
The purpose of this document is to provide a more detailed explanation of each indicator used in the risk assessment calculation and its source.
Issue Area 1. History of Armed Conflict
Armed Conflicts (Conflict Intensity Level) (Time Series: 1989-1999) (Source: Conflict Data Project and SIPRI Yearbook)
The Conflict Intensity Level describes the intensity
of armed conflicts occurring within a country in a given year, based on data from the
Conflict Data Project (CDP) at Uppsala University. The CDP defines an armed conflict
as a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of
armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state.
In order to be counted as an armed conflict, the CDP requires that there be a minimum of
25 battle-related deaths per year and per incompatibility. The scale for the
Conflict Intensity Level is as follows:
- Minor armed conflict: At least 25 battle-related deaths per year and fewer than 1,000 battle-related deaths during the course of the conflict.
- Intermediate armed conflict: At least 25 battle-related deaths per year and an accumulated total of at least 1,000 deaths, but fewer than 1,000 per year.
- War: At least 1 000 battle-related deaths per year.
Refugees Produced (Refugees by Country of Origin) (Time Series: 1990-1999) (Source: United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), State of the Worlds Refugees)
The number of refugees originating in the country in question. For
the purpose of data collection, the UNHCR defines refugees as follows: Persons recognized
as refugees under the 1951 United Nations Convention relating to the Status of Refugees or
its 1967 Protocol, the 1969 Organization of African Unity (OAU) Convention Governing the
Specific Aspects of Refugee Problems in Africa, persons recognized as refugees in
accordance with the UNHCR Statute, persons granted humanitarian or comparable status and
those granted temporary protection. The data presented here have been collected through
UNHCRs annual statistical survey of UNHCR country offices. Statistics on the
industrialized countries are generally based directly on Government reports, whereas the
figures for developing countries are mostly based on reports from UNHCR offices.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Refugees Produced
variable, 1 is Low number of refugees and 9 is High number of
refugees.
Refugees Hosted, IDP and Others of Concern (Time Series: 1995-2000) (Source: UNHCR, Annual Statistical Overview Reports)
The total number of displaced populations within a country,
including Refugees (by Country of Asylum), Asylum Seekers, Returned Refugees, IDPs,
Returned IDPs, and Other Populations of Concern. The UNHCR defines these categories
as follows:
Refugees (by Country of Asylum):Persons recognized as refugees under the 1951 United Nations Convention relating to the Status of Refugees or its 1967 Protocol, the 1969 Organization of African Unity (OAU) Convention Governing the Specific Aspects of Refugee Problems in Africa, persons recognized as refugees in accordance with the UNHCR Statute, persons granted humanitarian or comparable status and those granted temporary protection. The data presented here have been collected through UNHCRs annual statistical survey of UNHCR country offices. Statistics on the industrialized countries are generally based directly on Government reports, whereas the figures for developing countries are mostly based on reports from UNHCR offices.
Asylum Seekers: Persons whose applications for asylum are pending in the asylum procedure or who are otherwise registered as asylum-seekers. The data presented here have been collected through UNHCRs annual statistical survey of UNHCR country offices. Statistics on the industrialized countries are generally based directly on Government reports, whereas the figures for developing countries are mostly based on reports from UNHCR offices. Note that this category of displaced persons was not included prior to 1997.
Returned Refugees: Refugees who have repatriated to their place of origin and who remain of concern to UNHCR for a limited period after their return. For the purpose of UNHCR statistics, a cut-off period of two years has been applied. I.e. the returnee population at the end of 1999 consists of those who returned during 1998 and 1999. The data presented here have been collected through UNHCRs annual statistical survey of UNHCR country offices. Statistics on the industrialized countries are generally based directly on Government reports, whereas the figures for developing countries are mostly based on reports from UNHCR offices.
IDPs: Persons displaced internally within their country for reasons that would make them of concern to UNHCR if they were outside their country, and who have become of concern to UNHCR as a result of a request from the Security Council, General Assembly or Secretary-General of the United Nations. The data presented here have been collected through UNHCRs annual statistical survey of UNHCR country offices. Statistics on the industrialized countries are generally based directly on Government reports, whereas the figures for developing countries are mostly based on reports from UNHCR offices. Note that for 1997, IDPs are counted within the Others Displaced Populations of Concern category.
Returned IDPs: Persons displaced internally within their country for reasons that would make them of concern to UNHCR if they were outside their country, and who have become of concern to UNHCR as a result of a request from the Security Council, General Assembly or Secretary-General of the United Nations. As in the case of returned refugees, a cut-off period of two years has been applied for returned IDPs. I.e. the returned IDP population at the end of 1999 consists of IDPs who returned to their place of origin during 1998 and 1999. The data presented here have been collected through UNHCRs annual statistical survey of UNHCR country offices. Statistics on the industrialized countries are generally based directly on Government reports, whereas the figures for developing countries are mostly based on reports from UNHCR offices. Note that for 1995, Returned IDPs are counted within the Returned Refugees category.
Others Displaced Populations of Concern: Certain specific groups of persons not normally falling under the mandate of UNHCR, but to whom the Office extends protection and/or assistance pursuant to a special request by a competent organ of the United Nations. This category comprises selected internally displaced populations, groups of war victims, certain groups that emerge following the dissolution of states, etc. The data presented here have been collected through UNHCRs annual statistical survey of UNHCR country offices. Statistics on the industrialized countries are generally based directly on Government reports, whereas the figures for developing countries are mostly based on reports from UNHCR offices.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Refugees Hosted, IDP and
Others of Concern variable, 1 is Low number of displaced persons and 9
is High number of displaced persons. Note that whereas the Refugees
Produced Index ranks the number of displaced persons produced by a country (and have
sought or received asylum/residence elsewhere), the Refugees Hosted, IDP and Others
of Concern Index ranks the number of displaced persons of various types within a
country.
Issue Area 2. Governance and Political Instability
Level of Democracy (Overall Polity Score) (Time Series: 1985-1999) (Source: Polity IV)
The Overall Polity Score is on a 21 point scale ranging from +10
(strongly democratic) to -10 (strongly autocratic). In the definition of Polity IV,
democracy is conceived as three essential, interdependent elements. One is the presence of
institutions and procedures through which citizens can express effective preferences about
alternative policies and leaders. Second is the existence of institutionalized constraints
on the exercise of power by the executive. Third is the guarantee of civil liberties to
all citizens in their daily lives and in acts of political participation. Autocracy is
defined operationally in terms of the presence of a distinctive set of political
characteristics. In mature form, autocracies sharply restrict or suppress competitive
political participation. Their chief executives are chosen in a regularized process of
selection within the political elite, and once in office they exercise power with few
institutional constraints.
For the global rank based index (nine-point scale) of the Overall Polity Score, 1 is
strongly democratic and 9 is strongly autocratic.
Regime Durability (Time Series: 1985-1999) (Source: Polity IV)
The number of years since the most recent regime change (defined
by a three-point change in the Overall Polity score over a period of three years or less).
In calculating the Regime Durability Score, the first year during which a new
(post-change) polity is established is coded as the baseline year zero (value
= 0) and each subsequent year adds one to the value of the Durability variable.
For the Global rank based index (nine-point scale) of the Regime Durability Score, 1 is
high durability and 9 is low durability.
Restrictions on Civil and Political Rights (Time Series: 1985-1999) (Source: Freedom House, Annual Survey of Freedom)
Restrictions on Civil and Political Rights are scored on a 2 to 14
scale, where 2 is the highest degree of freedom and 14 is the lowest. The score is
the sum of Freedom House scores for Political Rights (on a 1-7 scale) and Civil Liberties
(on a 1-7 scale).
In Freedom Houses definition, Political rights enable people to participate freely
in the political process, which is the system by which the polity chooses authoritative
policy makers and attempts to make binding decisions affecting the national, regional, or
local community. In a free society, this represents the right of all adults to vote and
compete for public office, and for elected representatives to have a decisive vote on
public policies. Freedom Houses Score is based on a checklist of political rights,
as follows:
- Is the head of state and/or head of government or other chief authority elected through free and fair elections?
- Are the legislative representatives elected through free and fair elections?
- Are there fair electoral laws, equal campaigning opportunities, fair polling, and honest tabulation of ballots?
- Are the voters able to endow their freely elected representatives with real power?
- Do the people have the right to organize in different political parties or other competitive political groupings of their choice, and is the system open to the rise and fall of these competing parties or groupings?
- Is there a significant opposition vote, de facto opposition power, and a realistic possibility for the opposition to increase its support or gain power through elections?
- Are the people free from domination by the military, foreign powers, totalitarian parties, religious hierarchies, economic oligarchies, or any other powerful group?
- Do cultural, ethnic, religious, and other minority groups have
reasonable self-determination, self-government, autonomy, or participation through
informal consensus in the decision-making process?
In Freedom House's definition, Civil Liberties include the freedoms to develop views, institutions, and personal autonomy apart from the state. Freedom Houses Score is based on a checklist of Civil Liberties, as follows:
A. Freedom of Expression and Belief
B. Association and Organizational Rights
- Are there free and independent media and other forms of cultural expression? (Note: in cases where the media are state-controlled but offer pluralistic points of view, the Survey gives the system credit.)
- Are there free religious institutions and is there free private and public religious expression?
- Is there freedom of assembly, demonstration, and open public discussion?
- Is there freedom of political or quasi-political organization? (Note: this includes political parties, civic organizations, ad hoc issue groups, etc.)
- Are there free trade unions and peasant organizations or equivalents, and is there effective collective bargaining? Are there free professional and other private organizations?
C. Rule of Law and Human Rights
D. Personal Autonomy and Economic Rights
- Is there an independent judiciary?
- Does the rule of law prevail in civil and criminal matters? Is the population treated equally under the law? Are police under direct civilian control?
- Is there protection from political terror, unjustified imprisonment, exile, or torture, whether by groups that support or oppose the system? Is there freedom from war and insurgencies? (Note: freedom from war and insurgencies enhances the liberties in a free society, but the absence of wars and insurgencies does not in and of itself make a not free society free.)
- Is there freedom from extreme government indifference and corruption?
- Is there open and free private discussion?
- Is there personal autonomy? Does the state control travel, choice of residence, or choice of employment? Is there freedom from indoctrination and excessive dependency on the state?
- Are property rights secure? Do citizens have the right to establish private businesses? Is private business activity unduly influenced by government officials, the security forces, or organized crime?
- Are there personal social freedoms, including gender equality, choice of marriage partners, and size of family?
- Is there equality of opportunity, including freedom from exploitation by or dependency on landlords, employers, union leaders, bureaucrats, or other types of obstacles to a share of legitimate economic gains?
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the combined score for Political
Rights and Civil Liberties, 1 is "free" and 9 is"not free."
Restrictions on Press Freedom (Time Series: 1994-2000) (Source: Freedom House, Annual Press Freedom Survey)
Freedom Houses Annual Press Freedom Survey assesses the
degree to which each country permits the free flow of information on 1-100 point scale,
where countries scoring 0 to 30 are regarded as having a free press, 31 to 60 as
having a partly-free press, and 61 to 100 as having a not-free press. The Survey assesses
a number areas of concern, including: the structure of the news-delivery system (the laws
and administrative decisions and their influence on the content of the news media); the
degree of political influence or control over the content of the news systems; the
economic influences on news content exerted either by the government or private
entrepreneurs; and actual violations against the media, including murder, physical attack,
harassment, and censorship.
For the global rank based index (nine-point scale) of the Press Freedom Score, 1 is
free and 9 is not free.
Corruption Score (Single Measure: 1997-1998) (Source: World Governance Research Indicators Data Set)
The World Governance Research Indicators Data Set provides a
Control of Corruption indicator, that reflects the statistical compilation of
perceptions of the quality of governance of a large number of survey respondents in
industrial and developing countries, as well as non-governmental organizations, commercial
risk rating agencies, and think-tanks during 1997 and 1998. The score ranges from about
-2.5 to 2.5, with higher values corresponding to better governance outcomes.
For the global rank based index (nine-point scale) of the Corruption Score, 1 is low
corruption and 9 is high corruption.
Issue Area 3. Militarization
Military Expenditure (% of GDP, Constant 1995 US$) (Time Series: 1990-1998) (Source: SIPRI Military Expenditure Database)
SIPRI military expenditure figures as a percentage of GDP,
expressed in US$ Millions, at constant 1995 prices and exchange rates. Where
possible, SIPRI military expenditure include all current and capital expenditure on: the
armed forces, including peace keeping forces; defence ministries and other government
agencies engaged in defence projects; paramilitary forces when judged to be trained,
equipped and available for military operations; military space activities. These
expenditures include: all expenditures on current personnel, military and civil,
retirement pensions of military, social services for personnel and their families;
operations and maintenance; procurement; military research and development ; military
construction; military aid (in the military expenditures of the donor country).
Excluded military related expenditures: civil defence; current expenditure for previous
military activities, including veterans benefits, demobilization, conversion of arms
production facilities, and destruction of weapons.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Total Military Expenditure (% of
GDP, Constant 1995 US$) variable, 1 is low expenditure and 9 is high
expenditure.
Fraction of Regional Military Expenditure (% of known total
spending for 1990s) (Single Measure: 1990s) (Source: Calculated from SIPRI Military
Expenditure Database)
The Fraction of Regional Military Expenditure was calculated
through totalling known military expenditures for the West African Region, using SIPRI
Military Expenditure data, then dividing the sum into the total expenditure for each
country. The West African Region is taken to include the following countries, which
were figured into the regional total: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Cote
d'Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria,
Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo.
Total Armed Forces (Per 1000 People) (Time Series: 1998-2000) (Source: CIFP score based on IISS Military Balance and World Development Indicators)
In order to assess and compare the portion of a countrys
population involved in the operation of the military, the size of a countrys Total
Armed Forces was calculated per 1000 people, based on Armed Forces data from the IISS
Military Balance and Population data from the World Banks World Development
Indicators. Total armed forces includes both Active Forces and Reserves.
Active Armed Forces includes all servicemen and women on full-time duty, including
conscripts and long-term assignments from the reserves. Estimates of effective reservist
strength are based on the numbers available within five years of completing full-time
service. This number may include more than one category of reserves (army, navy, air
force), often kept at varying degrees of readiness.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Total Armed Forces (Per 1000
People) variable, 1 is Low number of armed forces and 9 is High number
of armed forces.
Issue Area 4. Population Heterogeneity
Ethnic Diversity Score (Single Measure: 1990s) (Source: CIFP score based on CIA World Factbook, Levinson's Ethnic Groups Worldwide: A Ready Reference Handbook)
The Ethnic Diversity Score is calculated on the basis of
Shihs D1 index of ethnic diversity. This measure is based on the number of
ethnic groups in a country weighted by the fraction of the population each group
represents. A primary strength of Shihs measure is that both the number
and the sizes of ethnic groups jointly determine the degree of ethnic diversity. The
following formula was used to calculate the degree of ethnic diversity:
Where ni is the size of ethnic group i, N is the total
population of the country, and j is the number of ethnic groups.
The primary source of data is the CIA World Factbook, but where this source did not
provide adequate percentage breakdowns of ethnic groups, CIA data was supplemented with
information from Levinson's Ethnic Groups Worldwide: A Ready Reference Handbook.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Ethnic Diversity Score variable,
1 is low diversity and 9 is high diversity.
Religious Diversity Score (Single Measure: 1990s) (Source: CIFP score based on CIA World Factbook, Levinson's Ethnic Groups Worldwide: A Ready Reference Handbook)
The Religious Diversity Score is calculated on the basis of
Shihs D2 index of religious diversity. This measure is based on the number of
religious groups in a country weighted by the fraction of the population each group
represents. A primary strength of Shihs measure is that both the number
and the sizes of religious groups jointly determine the degree of religious
diversity. The following formula was used to calculate the degree of ethnic
diversity:
Where ni is the size of religious group i, N is the
total population of the country, and j is the number of religious groups.
The primary source of data is the CIA World Factbook, but where this source did not
provide adequate percentage breakdowns of religious groups, CIA data was supplemented with
information from Levinson's Ethnic Groups Worldwide: A Ready Reference Handbook.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Religious Diversity Score
variable, 1 is low diversity and 9 is high diversity.
Risk of Ethnic Rebellion (Single Measure: 1990s) (Source: CIFP Score based on Minorities at Risk Data Set)
Minority Groups are identified by the Minorities at Risk Project
as being at risk if the country in which they reside has a population greater
than 500,000, the group itself has a population larger than 100,000 (or 1 percent of the
country population), and it meets at least one of the four criteria for inclusion as a
minority at risk. These four criteria are: that the group is
subject to political, economic or cultural discrimination; that the group is disadvantaged
from past political, economic or cultural discrimination; that the group is an
politically, economically or culturally advantaged, and that advantage is being
challenged; that the group supports political organizations advocating greater group
rights.
The risk of ethnic rebellion score is based on seven variables from the
Minorities at Risk data set for each minority group identified as being at
risk. The selection of fields to form the composite are derived from Harff and
Gurr's "Systematic Early Warning of Humanitarian Emergencies," where Gurr
writes that the likelihood that a politically active ethnic identity group will initiate
rebellion against the state is posited to be a joint function of three conditions:
collective incentives, the capacity for joint action (2 variables), and external
opportunities (1 variable). These factors assessed in the construction of this score
are as follows:
Group Incentives:
Lost Autonomy: The Lost Autonomy variable assesses both the extent of a groups historical loss of autonomy and how recently the loss was incurred. The greater and more recent the loss, the higher a groups score on the indicator.
Political, Economic, and Cultural Discrimination: Discriminatory policies against members of an ethnopolitical group directly threaten group status and help perpetuate the groups disadvantages vis a vis the dominant society. The MAR data set has coded information on the extent to which each ethnopolitical group was subject to political or economic discrimination, or to cultural restrictions as a matter of prevailing social practice or explicit state policy.
Group Capacity:
Cultural Identity: A sense of common identity is a requisite for sustained collective action in any collectivity. The indicator used here for communal identity takes into account the extent to which a group differs from others with respect to language, lifeways, religious beliefs, and physical appearance. The more distinct a disadvantaged group is with respect to these traits, the greater are the inferred strength and salience of group identity to its members.
Militant Mobilization: The organizational framework for rebellion is provided by militant (illegal) parties and movements that act in a groups name and interests. The Minorities at Risk project profiles each significant political organization that acts on behalf of an ethnopolitical group, including approximations of the extent of their support. This indicator takes into account the number of such organizations and the maximum estimate of their support.
Group Opportunities:
Support from Kindred Groups: Among the proximate causes of internal conflicts are provocative actions in neighbouring states. This indicator assesses the extent of symbolic and material support from kindred groups in neighbouring states, coded from information in the MAR data set. Categories of support include: no kindred groups were identified in neighbouring states; kindred groups were politically quiescent; kindred groups engaged in ethnopolitical protest; kindred groups provided political or nonmilitary financial support; kindred groups engaged in armed rebellion; kindred groups provided sanctuary, material assistance, or military support.
In order to calculate this index, each of the above MAR data fields was converted to a 0-1
scale, and totalled to form a "group ethnic risk score" (0-7) for each
identified Minority at Risk group. Individual "group ethnic risk scores"
were totalled for each country to form the National Risk of Ethnic Rebellion Score, with
an observed range of 0.273 (low risk) to 21.724 (high risk).
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Risk of Ethnic Rebellion Score
variable, where 1 is low risk and 9 is high risk.
Issue Area 5. Demographic Stress
Total Population (Time Series: 1985-1998) (Source: World Development Indicators)
Total population is based on the de facto definition of
population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship. Refugees
not permanently settled in the country of asylum are generally considered to be part of
the population of their country of origin.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Total Population variable, 1 is
low population and 9 is high population.
Population Growth Rate (Annual %) (Time Series: 1985-1998) (Source: World Development Indicators)
Annual growth rate of population from previous year.
Population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents
regardless of legal status or citizenship except for refugees not permanently settled in
the country of asylum, who are generally considered part of the population of the country
of origin.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Population Growth Rate variable,
1 is low growth rate and 9 is high growth rate.
Population Density (People Per Sq. km) (Time Series: 1985-1998)
(Source: World Development Indicators)
Population density is midyear population divided by land area in
square kilometres. Total population is based on the de facto definition of population,
which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship. Refugees not
permanently settled in the country of asylum are generally considered to be part of the
population of their country of origin. Land area is a countrys total area, excluding
area under inland water bodies, national claims to continental shelf, and exclusive
economic zones. In most cases the definition of inland water bodies includes major rivers
and lakes.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Population Density variable, 1
is low density and 9 is high density.
Urban Population (% of Total) (Time Series: 1985-1998) (Source:
World Development Indicators)
Urban population is the midyear population of areas defined as
urban in each country and reported to the United Nations. It is measured here as a
percentage of the total population. Data is sourced from the United Nations, World
Urbanization Prospects: The 1998 Revision.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Urban Population variable, 1 is
low population and 9 is high population.
Urban Population Growth Rate (Annual %) (Time Series: 1985-1998) (Source: World Development Indicators)
Annual growth rate of urban population from previous year.
Urban population is the midyear population of areas defined as urban in each country and
reported to the United Nations. Data is sourced from the United Nations, World
Urbanization Prospects: The 1998 Revision.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Urban Population Growth Rate
variable, 1 is low growth rate and 9 is high growth rate.
Youth Bulge (Pop. Aged 0-14 as a % of Total) (Time Series: 1985-1998) (Source: World Development Indicators)
Total population between the ages 0 to 14. Population is based on
the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal
status or citizenship except for refugees not permanently settled in the country of
asylum, who are generally considered part of the population of the country of
origin. Data based on World Bank staff estimates.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Youth Bulge variable, 1 is
low growth rate and 9 is high growth rate.
Issue Area 6. Economic Performance
GDP Growth Rate (Annual %) (Time Series: 1985-1998) (Source: World Development Indicators)
Annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on
constant local currency. Aggregates are based on constant 1995 U.S. dollars. GDP measures
the total output of goods and services for final use occurring within the domestic
territory of a given country, regardless of the allocation to domestic and foreign claims.
Gross domestic product at purchaser prices is the sum of gross value added by all resident
producers in the economy plus any taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value
of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated
assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. The residency of an
institution is determined on the basis of economic interest in the territory for more than
a year. Data derived from World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts
data files.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the GDP Growth Rate (Annual %)
variable, where 1 is high Growth Rate and 9 is low Growth Rate.
GDP Per Capita (PPP, Current International $) (Time Series: 1985-1998) (Source: World Development Indicators)
GDP per capita based on purchasing power parity (PPP). GDP PPP is
gross domestic product converted to international dollars using purchasing power parity
rates. An international dollar has the same purchasing power over GDP as the U.S. dollar
in the United States. GDP measures the total output of goods and services for final use
occurring within the domestic territory of a given country, regardless of the allocation
to domestic and foreign claims. Gross domestic product at purchaser prices is the sum of
gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any taxes and minus any
subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making
deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of
natural resources. The residency of an institution is determined on the basis of economic
interest in the territory for more than a year. Data are in current international dollars.
Data derived from World Bank, International Comparison Programme database.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the GDP Per Capita (PPP, Current
International $) variable, where 1 is low GDP Per Capita and 9 is high
GDP Per Capita.
Inflation (Consumer Prices, annual %) (Time Series: 1985-1998) (Source: World Development Indicators)
Inflation as measured by the consumer price index reflects the
annual percentage change in the cost to the average consumer of acquiring a fixed basket
of goods and services that may be fixed or changed at specified intervals, such as
yearly. Data derived from International Monetary Fund, International Financial
Statistics and data files.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Inflation (Consumer Prices,
annual %) variable, 1 is low inflation and 9 is high inflation.
Official Exchange Rate (Local Currency per US$) (Time Series:
1985-1998) (Source: World Development Indicators)
Official exchange rate refers to the actual, principal exchange
rate and is an annual average based on monthly averages (local currency units relative to
U.S. dollars) determined by country authorities or on rates determined largely by market
forces in the legally sanctioned exchange market. Data derived from International
Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Official Exchange Rate (Local
Currency per US$) variable, where 1 is low exchange rate and 9 is high
exchange rate.
Foreign Direct Investment, Net Inflows (% of GNP) (Time Series: 1985-1998) (Source: World Development Indicators)
Foreign direct investment is net inflows of investment to acquire
a lasting management interest (10 percent or more of voting stock) in an enterprise
operating in an economy other than that of the investor. It is the sum of equity capital,
reinvestment of earnings, other long-term capital, and short-term capital as shown in the
balance of payments. Data are figured as a percentage of GNP. Data are derived from
International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics and Balance of Payments
databases, and World Bank, Global Development Finance 2000.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Foreign Direct Investment, Net
Inflows (% of GNP) variable, 1 is high investment and 9 is low
investment.
Total Debt Service (% of GNI) (Time Series: 1985-1998) (Source: World Development Indicators)
Total debt service, figured as a percentage of Gross National
Income, is the sum of principal repayments and interest actually paid in foreign currency,
goods, or services on long-term debt, interest paid on short-term debt, and repayments
(repurchases and charges) to the IMF. Data derived from World Bank, Global Development
Finance 2000.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Total Debt Service (% of GNI)
variable, 1 is low debt service and 9 is high debt service.
Trade Openness (Trade as a % of GDP) (Time Series: 1985-1998) (Source: World Development Indicators)
Trade is the sum of exports and imports of goods and services
measured as a share of gross domestic product. Exports and Imports of goods and services
represent the value of all goods and other market services provided to or received from
the rest of the world. Included is the value of merchandise, freight, insurance,
transport, travel, royalties, license fees, and other services, such as communication,
construction, financial, information, business, personal, and government services. Labour
and property income (formerly called factor services) is excluded. Data are in constant
1995 U.S. dollars. Data derived from World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National
Accounts data files.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Trade Openness (Trade as a % of
GDP) variable, 1 is high openness and 9 is low openness.
Inequality Score (GINI Coefficient) (Single Measure) (Source: World Income Inequality Database)
The Gini index provides a convenient summary measure of the degree
of inequality, ranging, in ideal terms, from 0 (absolute equality) to 100 (absolute
inequality). Inequality in the distribution of income is reflected in the percentage
shares of either income or consumption accruing to segments of the population ranked by
either income or consumption (expenditure) levels. Data on personal or household income or
consumption come from nationally representative house-hold surveys. The data included in
the CIFP refer to different years between 1985 and 1999, and the rankings are based on
either per capita income or consumption (expenditure). Because the underlying household
surveys differ in method and in the type of data collected, the distribution indicators
are not reliably comparable across countries.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Inequality Score (GINI
Coefficient) variable, 1 is low inequality and 9 is high
inequality.
Issue Area 7. Human Development
Access to Improved Water Source (% of Total Population) (Time Series: 1990, 2000) (Source: UNICEF/WHO - Global Water and Sanitation Assessment Report)
Data were collected from two main sources: assessment
questionnaires and household surveys conducted by UNICEF and WHO. The assessment
questionnaires defined access to water supply in terms of the types of technology and
levels of service afforded. This included house connections, public standpipes, boreholes
with handpumps, protected dug wells, protected springs and rainwater collection; allowance
was also made for other locally-defined technologies. "Reasonable access" was
broadly defined as the availability of at least 20 litres per person per day from a source
within one kilometre of the user's dwelling. Types of source that did not give reasonable
and ready access to water for domestic hygiene purposes, such as tanker trucks and bottled
water, were not included.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Access to Improved Water Source
(% of Total Population) variable, 1 is high % with access and 9 is low %
with access.
Access to Sanitation (% of Total Population) (Time Series: 1990, 2000) (Source: UNICEF/WHO - Global Water and Sanitation Assessment Report)
Data were collected from two main sources: assessment
questionnaires and household surveys conducted by UNICEF and WHO. The assessment
questionnaires defined access to sanitation in terms of the types of technology and levels
of service afforded. This included connection to a sewer or septic tank system, pour-flush
latrine, simple pit or ventilated improved pit latrine, again with allowance for
acceptable local technologies. The excreta disposal system was considered adequate if it
was private or shared (but not public) and if it hygienically separated human excreta from
human contact.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Access to Sanitation (% of Total
Population) variable, 1 is high % with access and 9 is low % with
access.
Life Expectancy (Years) (Time Series: 1987-1998 (87, 90, 92, 97, 98)) (Source: World Development Indicators)
Life expectancy at birth indicates the number of years a new-born
infant would live if prevailing patterns of mortality at the time of its birth were to
stay the same throughout its life. Based on World Bank staff estimates.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Life Expectancy (Years)
variable, 1 is high life expectancy and 9 is low life expectancy.
Infant Mortality Rate (Per 1,000 Live Births) (Time Series: 1987-1998 (87, 90, 92, 97, 98)) (Source: World Development Indicators)
Infant mortality rate is the number of infants who die before
reaching one year of age, per 1,000 live births in a given year. Based on World Bank
staff estimates.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Infant Mortality Rate (Per 1,000
Live Births) variable, 1 is low mortality rate and 9 is high mortality
rate.
Maternal Mortality Rate (Per 100,000 Live Births) (Single Measure: 1995) (Source: World Development Indicators)
Maternal Mortality Rate is the number of maternal deaths per
100,000 live births.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Maternal Mortality Rate (Per
100,000 Live Births) variable, 1 is low mortality and 9 is high
mortality.
HIV/AIDS (% of Adult Population) (Time Series: 1997, 1999) (Source: UNAIDS Epidemic Reports)
To calculate the adult HIV prevalence rate, the estimated number
of adults living with HIV/AIDS at the end of each year was divided by that years
adult population. UNAIDS estimates include all people with HIV infection, whether or
not they have developed symptoms of AIDS, alive at the end of the year. Adult
population is defined as men and women aged 1549. This age range captures those in
their most sexually active years. While the risk of HIV infection obviously continues
beyond 50, the vast majority of those with substantial risk behaviour are likely to have
become infected by this age. Since population structures differ greatly from one country
to another, especially for children and the upper adult ages, the restriction of
"adults" to 1549-year-olds has the advantage of making different
populations more comparable. This age range was used as the denominator in calculating the
adult HIV prevalence rate.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the HIV/AIDS (% of Adult Population)
variable, 1 is low prevalence of HIV/AIDS and 9 is high prevalence of
HIV/AIDS.
Primary School Enrollment (% of Relevant Age Group) (Time Series: 1985-1997) (Source: World Development Indicators)
Net enrollment ratio is the ratio of the number of children of
official school age (as defined by the national education system) who are enrolled in
school to the population of the corresponding official school age. Primary education
provides children with basic reading, writing, and mathematics skills along with an
elementary understanding of such subjects as history, geography, natural science, social
science, art, and music. Based on the International Standard Classification of Education
(ISCED). Data derived from United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural
Organization Statistics.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Primary School Enrollment (% of
Relevant Age Group) variable, 1 is low enrollment and 9 is high
enrollment.
Secondary School Enrollment (% of Relevant Age Group) (Time Series: 1985-1997) (Source: World Development Indicators)
Net enrollment ratio is the ratio of the number of children of
official school age (as defined by the national education system) who are enrolled in
school to the population of the corresponding official school age. Secondary education
completes the provision of basic education that began at the primary level, and aims at
laying the foundations for lifelong learning and human development, by offering more
subject- or skill-oriented instruction using more specialized teachers. Based on the
International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED). Data derived from United
Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization Statistics.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Secondary School Enrollment (%
of Relevant Age Group) variable, 1 is low enrollment and 9 is high
enrollment.
Children in Labour Force (% of 10-14 Age Group) (Time Series: 1990-1998 (90, 95, 98)) (Source: World Development Indicators)
Children 10-14 in the labour force is the share of that age group
that is active in the labour force. labour force comprises all people who meet the
International Labour Organizations definition of the economically active population.
Data is derived from International Labour Organization statistics.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Children in Labour Force (% of
10-14 Age Group) variable, 1 is low % of children in labour force and 9 is
high % of children in labour force.
Issue Area 8. Environmental Stress
Rate of Deforestation (% Change) (Single Measure: 1990-1995) (Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank Atlas)
Definitions of forest area vary among countries. Land area is the
country's total area, excluding the area under inland bodies of water. Annual
Average Deforestation is calculated on the based of the average annual percentage
reduction in Total Forest Coverage. Data on land area and forests are from the Food
and Agriculture Organization.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Rate of Deforestation variable,
where 1 is low deforestation and 9 is high deforestation.
People per square kilometre of Arable Land (Single Measure, 1997) (Source: World Bank Development Indicators 2000)
Arable land includes land defined by the FAO as land under
temporary crops (double-cropped areas are counted once), temporary meadows for mowing or
for pasture, land under market or kitchen gardens, and land temporarily fallow. Land
abandoned as a result of shifting cultivation is excluded.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the People per sq. km of Arable Land
variable, where 1 is low number and 9 is high number.
Freshwater Resources, cubic meters per capita (Single Measure, 1998) (Source: World Bank Development Indicators 2000)
The data on freshwater resources are based on estimates of runoff
into rivers and recharge of ground-water, including river flows arising outside the
country. Because the definition includes river flows entering a country but does not
deduct river flows out of countries, it double counts the availability of water from
international river ways. Caution: estimates are based on different sources and refer to
different years, and the data also fails to distinguish between seasonal and geographic
variations in water availability within countries.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Freshwater Resources variable,
where 1 is high number and 9 is low number.
Issue Area 9. International Linkages
Economic Organizations (Single Measure: 2000) (Source: CIA World Factbook)
The number of organizations, based on CIA World Factbook data on
memberships, coded by the CIFP as having a mandate focusing primarily on economic matters.
To construct an index of membership in economic organizations, the total GDP represented
by each organization (based on the total GDPs of all member states [using 1998 GDP figures
at Market Prices in 1995 US$ millions]) was calculated. These organizational totals were
summed for each country to provide an indication of the strength of the Economic
Organizations to which the country belonged. Countries were sorted from highest to lowest,
divided into nine equal categories, and then assigned numbers ranging from 1 to 9 based on
the category to which they belonged (where 1 = High Membership and 9 = Low Membership).
Military/Security Alliances (Single Measure: 2000) (Source: CIA World Factbook)
The number of organizations, based on CIA World Factbook data on
memberships, coded by the CIFP as having a mandate focusing primarily on military and
security matters.
To construct an index of membership in Military/Security Organizations, the total armed
forces represented by each organization (based on the total armed forces of all member
states [using 2000 Armed Forces numbers from IISS's Military Balance]) was calculated.
Then, these organizational totals were summed for each country to provide an indication of
the strength of the Military/Security Organizations to which the country belonged.
Countries were sorted from highest to lowest, divided into nine equal categories, and then
assigned numbers ranging from 1 to 9 based on the category to which they belonged (where 1
= High Membership and 9 = Low Membership).
UN Organizations (Single Measure: 2000) (Source: CIA World Factbook)
The number of organizations of which a country is a member, based
on CIA World Factbook data on memberships, which are formally part of the United Nations
System.
To assess each country's stature within the United Nations (UN), the number of UN
organizations to which a country belonged was used as the indicator of a country's
relative dominance. Countries were sorted from highest to lowest, divided into nine equal
categories, and then assigned numbers ranging from 1 to 9 based on the category to which
they belonged (where 1 = High Membership and 9 = Low Membership).
Multipurpose and Miscellaneous Organizations (Single Measure: 2000) (Source: CIA World Factbook)
Multipurpose organizations include those organizations, based on
CIA World Factbook data on memberships, coded by the CIFP as having a mandate that crossed
various sectors of activity. Miscellaneous organizations include those organizations coded
by the CIFP as having a mandate focusing primarily on areas not included above, or
otherwise not fitting into any of the above categories.
A procedure similar to that of UN organizations was used to assess the strength of each
country's memberships in multipurpose organizations or miscellaneous organizations (i.e.
organizations that could not be classified as economic, military/security, UN, or
multi-purpose.) The number of such organizations to which a country belonged was used as
the indicator of a country's relative dominance. Countries were sorted from highest
to lowest, divided into nine equal categories, and then assigned numbers ranging from
1 to 9 based on the category to which they belonged (where 1 = High Membership and 9
= Low Membership).
Total International Disputes (Time Series: 1999-2000) (Source: CIA World Factbook)
To assess a countrys relationship with its neighbours, CIFP
examined the number of international disputes in which the country was involved.
International disputes are defined by the CIA World Factbook to include a wide range of
situations that range from traditional bilateral boundary disputes to unilateral claims of
one sort of another. The Total International Disputes variable counts the total
annual number of international disputes that appear annually in the CIA World Factbook. In
cases where a country claims a territory that is also claimed by a number of other
countries, disputes are counted for each of the other countries individually. If a country
has multiple disputes with another country, again these are counted separately.
For the global rank based index (nine point scale) of the Total International Disputes
variable, where 1 is no disputes and 9 is many disputes.
Data Sources
Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO)
FAOSTAT Statistical Database
http://apps.fao.org/
Freedom House
Annual Review of Freedom
http://www.freedomhouse.org/ratings/index.htm
Annual Press Freedom Survey
http://www.freedomhouse.org/research/pressurvey.htm
International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)
Military Balance Annual
http://www.iiss.org/pub/milbal1.asp
Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS)
Epidemic Updates and Reports
http://www.unaids.org/epidemic_update/
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Military Expenditure Database
http://projects.sipri.se/milex/mex_database1.html
SIPRI Yearbooks
http://editors.sipri.se/pubs/yearb.html
Transparency International
Corruption Perceptions Index
http://www.transparency.org/documents/cpi/2001/cpi2001.html
United Nations Childrens Fund (UNICEF) / World Health Organization (WHO)
Global Water and Sanitation Assessment Reports
http://www.who.int/water_sanitation_health/Globassessment/GlobalTOC.htm
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
Human Development Reports
http://www.undp.org/hdro/
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)
Statistical Overviews
http://www.unhcr.ch/statist/main.htm
State of the Worlds Refugees Reports
http://www.unhcr.ch/sowr2000/toc2.htm
United Nations Statistical Division
United Nations Statistical Yearbook
http://esa.un.org/unsd/pubs/
United Nations University (UNU) and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
World Income Inequality Database
http://www.undp.org/poverty/initiatives/wider/wiid.htm
United States Central Intelligence Agency
World Factbook Annuals
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/
University of Maryland, Centre for International Development and Conflict
Management (CIDCM)
Polity IV Project Data Set
http://www.bsos.umd.edu/cidcm/polity/
Minorities at Risk Project Data Set
http://www.bsos.umd.edu/cidcm/mar/
Uppsala University
Conflict Data Project
http://www.pcr.uu.se/data.htm
World Bank
World Development Indicators
http://www.worldbank.org/data/wdi/home.html
World Governance Research Indicators Data Set
D. Kaufmann A. Kraay, and P. Zoido-Lobatón
http://www.worldbank.org/wbi/governance/pubs/aggindicators.htm
David Levinson, Ethnic Groups Worldwide: A Ready Reference Handbook, Oryx Press,
Westport, Conn., 1998.