Events and Partners

CIFP’s reputation and partnerships tend to be more global (outside Canada) than local (within Carleton). This is due to: international policy relevant research, direct engagement through training with local partners, peer reviewed output on a continuing basis, a strong web presence based on building partnerships, and funding from international as well as domestic sources.
Graduate training and opportunities for joint publication have proved successful. Many students of have gone on to apply their specific skills in a professional capacity. As the current projects employ a dozen researchers and analysts it is expected that significant benefits will be obtained as the projects progress.
Presentation of research, publication of research and consultation with international experts all serve to enhance the project’s profile and in turn Carleton’s reputation as a policy and research intensive University

Events

Event	Purpose	Location	Date
Conference on Fragile, Failed and Dangerous States	Presentation of two papers	Centre for Global Studies, Victoria BC	25-27 Nov 2005
Presentation to CIIA	Presentation on Canadian Foreign Policy and Failed States,	CIIA, Ottawa	December 2005
Presentation to Foreign Affairs Canada	Presentation of research to START Interdepartmental partners	Pearson Building, Ottawa ON	27 Jan 2006
START methodology meeting	Interdepartmental meeting to develop START	Pearson Building, Ottawa ON	22 Feb 2006
Presentation at CIDA	Presentation of research methodology to ODG	CIDA Building, Ottawa ON	8 Mar 2006
CIFP-Global Development Group (GDG) Collaborative Presentation	Presentation of Consolidated Early Warning System (CEWS) concept	GDG Offices, Ottawa ON	10 Mar 2006
Briefing for Senator Dallaire	Presentation of research	Parliament Hill, Ottawa ON	21 Mar 2006
The Technical Cooperation Program Joint Systems and Analysis Group (TTCP JSA), Technical Panel 6 - Systems Based Analysis of Effects	Presentation of research	Canadian Forces Experimentation Centre, Ottawa	10-13 Apr 2006
Conflict Prevention or Economic Development: Which Should Come First?	Presentation of research agenda and findings	The Ditchley Foundation, London, UK	19-21 May 2006
CIFP Fragile States Scientific Committee Conference call	Review of research progress, identification of next steps	N/A	23 Jun 2006
Presentation at Canadian International Institute of Applied Negotiation (CIIAN)	Presentation of research agenda, discussion of ‘OSER’ concept	CIIAN Offices, Ottawa	2 October 2006
CIGI ’06 - Conference on International Governance Innovation	Presentation of research	Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI), Waterloo ON	15-16 Sep 2006
Presentation to Asia Branch	Presentation of governance research project, identification of case study countries	CIDA Building, Ottawa ON	4 Oct 2006
Presentation to CIDA Governance Core Group	Presentation of governance research project, identification of case study countries	CIDA Building, Ottawa ON	10 Oct 2006
Open Source for Effective Response (OSER)	Presentation of research; discussion of potential for collaborative provision of open source information and analysis	Ottawa ON	31 Oct-1 Nov 2006
Expert Forum on Capacity Building for Peace and Development: Roles of Diaspora	Presentation of paper on diaspora roles and effects in Haiti and Jamaica	University of Peace, Toronto ON	19-20 Oct 2006
Presentation to Americas Branch	Presentation of governance research project, identification of case study countries	CIDA Building, Ottawa ON	16, 27 Nov 2006
Réseau francophone de recherche sur les opérations de paix / Conference on 50 Anniversary of Peacekeeping	Presentation of Paper on Failed States and PSOs	Montreal	3-4 Nov 2006
Strategic Foresight and Warning Seminar Series -- Conference on early warning and early response to conflict	Presentation of research	Zurich, Switzerland	18-20 Jan 2007
Meeting with SDC	Presentation of research, discussion of potential for collaboration	Geneva	21-23 Jan 2007
Meeting with Swisspeace	Presentation of research, discussion of potential for collaboration	Bern, Switzerland	21-23 Jan 2007
Meeting with Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO)	Presentation of research, discussion of potential for collaboration	London, UK	24-26 Jan 2007
UBC Conference on Failed and Fragile States	Conference on fragile states	Liu Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver BC	Spring 2007
Malta Conference on SIDS	Presentation of paper/keynote address	University of Malta	23-25 Apr 2007.
WIDER Fragile States Conference	Presentation of Research	Helsinki, FI	June 2007
CIIA/CIFP workshop on Guatemala and Guyana	Discussion of Canadian Priorities	Ottawa, Canada	May 2007
CIFP/CPCC Workshop on Fragile States and Risk Assessment Tools	Presentations from donor and NGO community on tools and best practices	Carleton University	October 2007
Workshop on Conflict Prevention – Folke Bernadotte Working Group	Presentation of Models for Conflict Prevention: Data Validation	Washington DC	December 2007
Workshop on Governance and Democracy	Presentation of Fragile States Methodology: Data Validation	Lima, Peru	December 2007
Paper On State Fragility Models: Empirical Assessment	International Studies Association	San Francisco	March 2008

Partners

Developing policy relevant tools (see appendix) in the absence of rigorous peer review is not sufficient. At its inception, the CIFP fragile states project established a Scientific Committee comprised of thematic experts and practitioners who provide comment through workshops and reviews of work in progress on the methodology, the analysis and the case studies.

As a result we have developed a strong publication record and will continue to do so in the foreseeable future. Our publications have been three fold. First we have produced articles and book chapters (with a book manuscript proposal under review) that provides in-depth assessment of existing research projects on failed and fragile states in order to identify the presumed causes of fragility and failure. These publications examine the extant literature on state failure including assessments of seminal contributions on the subject.

Second we have publications and research reports that specify the causes of fragility in order to develop our own models. In these articles we have provided a clear definition of fragility which takes into account the fact that states need to possess three fundamental properties in order to function effectively: authority, legitimacy and capacity (the so-called ALC framework). This is the definition of fragility which has been used by the CIFP project in assembling structural indicators and in constructing the state fragility index (an overall annual ranking of countries, and along different dimensions).

After providing conceptual clarity to the issue of state fragility and assessing the evidence and policy implications of addressing the challenges these states face, we have conducted statistical analysis to identify the correlates of fragility using latest cross-sectional data from the CIFP project for the period 1999-2005. This represents a substantial contribution to the existing literature in that there had been no serious attempt to identify the main determinants of state fragility. It is our belief that an understanding of why and how states become fragile is necessary if engagement (especially through development assistance) is to have a measurable and positive impact in fragile states.

Third, having identified the relevant (and vast) literature on the subject and having developed an alternative framework we then test, empirically, that framework in order to demonstrate its utility as a policy relevant analytical tool. Testing proceeds in two stages. First, we reconceptualise the meaning of state fragility using a framework derived from three core measures of state performance: authority, legitimacy and capacity of a state, collectively referred to as ALC. Measures of these ALC components correspond to six different categories of state performance – economics, governance, security and crime, human development, demographics, and the environment. Initial testing of our fragility index, by exploiting both cross-sectional and temporal variations in our data, shows that fragility is driven by a number of factors, of which the level of development seems to be relatively more important. Second, we complement this analysis by examining state fragility in specific country cases, again using the ALC framework.

Overall, the approach specified in our publications has the distinct advantage of identifying country-specific patterns of fragility while at the same time allowing for broad strategically relevant measures of comparative performance that can be of use to policy makers regarding allocation of aid at the sectoral and programming level. For example, notwithstanding the fact that aid may be allocated for political and strategic reasons and that fragile states are under funded, we argue that the aid that does flow to fragile states could be better targeted. Specifically, it could strengthen the underlying determinants of fragility by addressing fragile states’ distinct and country-specific weaknesses in authority, legitimacy and capacity.

More precisely, not only must policy makers be sensitive to fragile states environments when making decisions on aid allocation, but aid allocation that focuses on only certain characteristics of stateness may be counterproductive.

Using our ALC framework we show that a key factor in determining long term state stability, namely legitimacy, is generally underemphasized in aid allocation decisions. Indeed, our results indicate that aid allocation is directed towards states on the basis of their capacity and authority scores and not on the basis of their legitimacy scores. Finally, we have extended our research to examine fragility in small island developing states (SIDS) which have very specific and individual vulnerabilities related to their economic conditions, governance and international linkages. We find that few SIDS have all of the problems in extreme in comparison to larger countries and that they could benefit from very specific and targeted policies. However, our evaluation of the CIFP governance index against SIDS performance indicates that the determinants of governance in SIDS are not very different from those of other developing countries.

All the co-authored publications related to funded research are listed below. Carment has several prior publications – including books - on state failure, conflict prevention and risk analysis that have provided the basis for this current research. It is also important to point out that much of the research is intended for direct use by policy makers and to that end handbooks, briefs and detailed country reports – peer reviewed by CIFP’s academic committee and by government officials – are uploaded to the CIFP website at www.carleton.ca/cifp and are in circulation beyond Canada.. Over 30 distinct briefs, concept notes and reports ranging in length from 110 pages to 16 pages are in circulation and available for download. These reports are written by the CIFP team researchers. Over the three year funding period the project has employed over 25 researchers mostly graduate students, some of whom are included as co-authors in specific publications or identified as lead author in others.

A Cross Section of Related Papers and Publications Published or Presented During Funding Cycle

"State Fragility and Implications for Aid Allocation: An Empirical Analysis," David Carment, Stewart Prest and Yiagadeesen Samy, (Fall) in Conflict Management and Peace Science, 2008.

"Small States, Resilience and Governance," David Carment, Jean-Francois Gagne, Stewart Prest and Yiagadeesen Samy, in Small States and the Pillars of Economic Resilience, Malta, Commonwealth Secretariat, 2008.

"Exploiting Ethnicity," Harvard International Review, (Vol 28, no. 4, 2007). Special issue on Ethnic Conflict: Reversing the Trend with contributions from Paul Collier, Chaim Kaufmann, Charles King and Andrew Reynolds.

"Assessing Fragility: Theory, Evidence and Policy," David Carment, Stewart Prest and Yiagadeesen Samy, Politorbis, 42(1), 2007.

"The 2006 Country Indicators for Foreign Policy: Opportunities and Challenges for Canada," David Carment, Souleima el-Achkar, Stewart Prest and Yiagadeesen Samy, Canadian Foreign Policy Journal , 13(1), 2006.

"Assessing the Fragility of Small Island Developing States," David Carment, Stewart Press and Yiagadeesen Samy, in Briguglio, L., Cordina, G., and Kisanga E. J. (eds) Building the Economic Resilience of Small States, Malta, Commonwealth Secretariat, 2006.

Asselin, Genevieve, Kristine St. Pierre and David Carment.. "Rwanda: A Case Study." Ed. Karl DeRouen and U. K. Heo. Civil Wars of the World: Profiles of the Most Intense Internal Conflicts Since World War II. Oxford, UK: ABC-CLIO.

Bouffard, Sonia, David Carment. 2006. "The Sri Lanka Peace Process: A Review and Critique." Journal of South Asian Development, vol. 1, no. 2.

Carment, David. 2005. "Failed States - Circumstances and form of intervention." Presented to the Conference on Fragile, Failed and Dangerous States, Centre for Global Studies. Victoria BC, 25-27 Nov.

Carment, David. 2005. "Canadian Defence Policy and State Failure." CDFAI Monograph.

Carment, David. 2006. "The Ditchley Foundation: Conflict Prevention or Economic Development: Which Should Come First?" 19-21 May, Summary Report.

Carment, David, Andrew Harrington, Stewart Prest, and Per Unheim. 2006. "Jamaica, Haiti, Diasporas and Peacebuilding." Presented at the Expert Forum on Capacity Building for Peace and Development: Roles of Diaspora, University of Peace. Toronto, 19-20 October.

Carment, David. 2006. "Exploiting Ethnicity: Political Elites and Domestic Conflict." Harvard International Review. Winter.

Carment, David, Andrew Harrington, Stewart Prest, and Per Unheim. Forthcoming. "Jamaica, Haiti, and the Role of Diasporas." Ed. David Carment and David Bercuson Canadian Foreign Policy and the New 3Ds: Diaspora, Demography and Domestic Politics. Montreal: McGill-Queens University Press.

Carment, David, John Gazo, and Stewart Prest. 2007. "State Failure and Risk Assessment." Global Society. Winter.

Carment, David, Patrick James, and Zeynep Taydas. 2006. Who Intervenes? Ethnic Conflict and Interstate Crises. Ohio State University Press.

Carment, David, John Gazo, Stewart Prest, Terry Bell, and Sarah Houghton. 2006. "Assessing the Circumstances and Forms of Canada’s Involvement in Fragile States: Towards a Methodology of Relevance and Impact." Human Security Bulletin. December.

Carment, David, Stewart Prest, and Yiagadeesen Samy. 2006. "Assessing Small Island Developing State Fragility." Lino Briguglio and Eliawony J. Kisanga, eds. Economic Vulnerability and Resilience of Small States. London: Formatek Publishing, on behalf of Islands and Small States Institute of the University of Malta and the Commonwealth Secretariat.

Carment, David, Souleima el-Achkar, Stewart Prest, and Yiagadeesen Samy. 2006. "The 2006 CIFP Failed and Fragile States Net Assessment: Opportunities and Challenges for the Canadian Government," Canadian Foreign Policy. Winter.

Carment, David, Terry Bell, John Gazo, and Stewart Prest. 2005. "Failed and fragile states: A concept paper for the Canadian Government." CIFP Working Paper, prepared for the Canadian International Development Agency, December.

Carment, David and Albrecht Schnabel. 2006. "Conflict Prevention, Concept and Application." Ed. G. Geeraerts, N. Pauwels, and E. Remacle. Dimensions of Peace and Security: A Reader. Brussels: Peter Lang Brussels.

CIFP. 2006. "Country Fragility Assessments in Brief: A Primer for Analysts." CIFP Policy Document, September.

CIFP. 2006. "Democracy and Governance Processes Project." CIFP Briefing document prepared for CIDA, October.

Delany, Caroline, Susan Ampleford, George Conway, and Angelica Ospina. 2006. "Country Indicators for Foreign Policy: Developing an Indicators-Based User Friendly Risk Assessment Capability." Ed. Robert Trappl Programming for Peace: Computer-Aided Methods for International Conflict Resolution and Prevention. Dordrecht: Springer Academic Publishers.

Marriott, Koren and David Carment. 2006. "International Conflict Prevention: An Assessment of Canadian Perceptions and Policies." Ed. Patrick James and Marc O'Reilly. Handbook of Canadian Foreign Policy. Lanham, MD: Lexington Books.

Prest, Stewart, David Carment, Yiagadeesen Samy, Souleima el-Achkar, and Terry Bell. 2006. "Failed and Fragile States 2006: A Briefing Note for the Canadian Government," CIFP Briefing Document prepared for CIDA, August.

Prest, Stewart, John Gazo, and David Carment. 2005. "Working out strategies for strengthening fragile states - the British, American and German experience." Presented to the Conference on Fragile, Failed and Dangerous States, Centre for Global Studies. Victoria BC, 25-27 Nov.

Event - monitoring briefings - prepared for the European Commission

Fysh, Adam. 2006. "Sub-national Report for Aceh: Events, Scenarios, and Analysis." CIFP Briefing Document. Prepared for the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), July.

Fysh, Adam. 2006. "Sub-national Report for Dagestan: Events, Scenarios, and Analysis." CIFP Briefing Document. Prepared for the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), July.

Fysh, Adam. 2006. "Sub-national Report for Kaliningrad: Events, Scenarios, and Analysis." CIFP Briefing Document. Prepared for the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), July.

Fysh, Adam. 2006. "Sub-national Report for Kashmir: Events, Scenarios, and Analysis." CIFP Briefing Document. Prepared for the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), July.

Fysh, Adam. 2006. "Sub-national Report for Moldova: Events, Scenarios, and Analysis." CIFP Briefing Document. Prepared for the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), July.

St. Jean, Liz. 2006. "Sub-national Report for Iraqi Kurdistan: Events, Scenarios, and Analysis." CIFP Briefing Document. Prepared for the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), July.

St. Jean, Liz. 2006. "Sub-national Report for Kosovo: Events, Scenarios, and Analysis." CIFP Briefing Document. Prepared for the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), July.

St. Jean, Liz. 2006. "Sub-national Report for Serbia and Montenegro: Events, Scenarios, and Analysis." CIFP Briefing Document. Prepared for the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), July.

St. Jean, Liz. 2006. "Sub-national Report for Western Sahara: Events, Scenarios, and Analysis." CIFP Briefing Document. Prepared for the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), July. 2006.